McCarthy’s Moment: How He Avoided Catastrophe and Dodged a Revolt

Critics called Kevin McCarthy a weak, wounded leader in January after he limped into the speaker's chair following a grueling series of 15 ballots that had him begging for votes from his conference.  

McCarthy turned that narrative around Wednesday night as the House overwhelmingly passed the deal he brokered with President Joe Biden to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default, marking the biggest victory of his young speakership. Despite complaints from a couple dozen of the most conservative members, Republicans largely coalesced around the bill in a 314-117 vote to raise the debt limit and impose spending caps. 

“Kevin McCarthy’s always been underestimated — always been underestimated,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), chair of the House Financial Services Committee and one of McCarthy’s top negotiators in talks with the White House to raise the debt limit. “The week of the speaker’s vote, the whole negotiation, the lack of negotiation. There’s been multiple times this calendar year alone that he’s been underestimated.”

All told, McCarthy was able to persuade two-thirds of House Republicans to vote for the bill Wednesday. Still, that won’t silence his critics among the House Freedom Caucus, particularly after more Democrats voted in favor of the measure than Republicans.

Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) had publicly said a potential push to oust McCarthy from the speakership was on the table prior to the vote. Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) warned McCarthy “should be concerned.” Any member can introduce a motion to vacate — a product of one of McCarthy’s concessions before he became speaker. 

But the appetite for such a move has remained shallow within the House GOP Conference. The few lawmakers publicly considering the motion have found little traction for it even among those who opposed McCarthy’s debt limit agreement.

“I’m not going there,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who lobbied against the bill, told reporters this week when asked if he would consider a motion to vacate. “It’s not fair to McCarthy.”

How the deal came together

Biden and McCarthy had their first sit-down in the Oval Office in February, when they discussed spending priorities and avoiding a default. The president, who was adamant that he wouldn’t negotiate over the debt limit, later said he would release his budget in March and challenged House Republicans to do the same. 

Doing so, however, would’ve opened Republicans up to attacks about any cuts they sought to make. So they moved their own bill to raise the debt limit instead, which McCarthy’s allies say forced the White House to the table and also served as the basis for negotiations.

“Limit, Save, Grow was the first position in a negotiation process,” Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) said, referring to the bill House Republicans passed in April raising the debt limit for one year while curbing federal spending over the next decade. “The reality is we knew going in that this was our first position. This got us to the negotiating table.”

Talks that began this month with Biden and all four congressional leaders soon narrowed to negotiators handpicked by Biden and McCarthy as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen projected the U.S. to be mere weeks away from defaulting on its debt.

As talks continued, McCarthy led a House Republican media blitz along with McHenry and Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.) and Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.). The strategy allowed House Republicans to dominate the dialogue, drowning out Democrats’ message until House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and his leadership team began to counter as the White House prioritized negotiating in private. 

Graves praised McCarthy as “hands down the best strategist I’ve ever worked with,” describing him as someone who thinks five or six steps ahead.

“It is why they absolutely have tire tracks on them in this negotiation,” Graves said of the White House. “It is why we absolutely ran over them in negotiations on about seven of their red lines, and it’s why you see them out there trying to sell this and spin it in a way that benefits them.”

McCarthy also stood by his conference’s rule that requires 72 hours at minimum for members and the public to review legislation before the chamber will vote on it. He reiterated that position repeatedly, even as Washington was increasingly at risk of crashing into a debt ceiling deadline.

Negotiators clinched a deal over the long holiday weekend. The Congressional Budget Office scored the bill late Tuesday, shortly before House Republicans met privately for nearly three hours to air out their views. 

The legislation raises the debt limit into 2025 and includes enforceable budget caps for the next two fiscal years, rescissions of IRS funds and pandemic money, and expanded work requirements for SNAP and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, among other things. CBO said the proposal would reduce the federal deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next decade. 

'Keep underestimating us'

McCarthy and other House Republican leaders held a news conference immediately after the vote. As evidence of how confident the speaker was in its passage, his office noticed the event more than six hours in advance, about a half-hour before the earlier vote on the rule.

“He did what everybody said couldn’t be done,” Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) said of McCarthy. “And that’s no small thing.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) told The Messenger that fellow conservatives were disappointed by talking points from leadership that aren’t reflected in the legislative text. Some members, he said, are “really upset.”

“But we’ve got important work to do beyond this and we’ll probably be pretty eager to turn the page, get on to the next thing,” Gaetz said. 

But as long as Republicans are in the majority, any critic of McCarthy could trigger a vote to remove him.

“At least it isn't coming today, it looks like,” Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) said. “I think when people go home and calm down and look at what’s actually in the package and what’s possible … that we did OK here.”

While a threat to McCarthy’s leadership continues to hover over him, his position within the conference was only strengthened Wednesday night.

“I think people see he’s done better than anybody had ever thought,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said. “Let’s give him credit for it.”

At his news conference Wednesday, McCarthy gleefully boasted about the high volume of Democrats who had supported a discharge petition — a last-ditch effort for a clean debt ceiling increase — yet voted for the bill he negotiated.

“This is one of the best nights I’ve ever been here,” McCarthy said. “I thought it would be hard. I thought it’d be almost impossible just to get to 218.”

He also teased reporters, telling them they all ask the same questions about whether he believes Republicans can pass a bill or if he can maintain his speakership. 

“Keep underestimating us,” he said.