How Israel’s War in Gaza Could Spill Over Into Syria

Since the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, one of the main U.S. priorities has been to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza from spilling over into a wider regional conflict, which could force the U.S. to take a more direct military role. While that hasn’t happened yet, the violence is spreading to other countries, and the United States is already involved. 

One nation in the crosshairs is Syria. 

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. has conducted three rounds of airstrikes–the most recent last Sunday–against locations in Syria it says are linked to Iranian-backed militia groups. The U.S. says these are in retaliation for more than 40 attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and neighboring Iraq since the Gaza war began, attacks that have injured 45 American troops. 

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned that more U.S. strikes could be coming.

"These attacks must stop, and if they don't stop, then we won't hesitate to do what's necessary, again, to protect the troops," he told reporters in South Korea.

Israel, meanwhile, has carried out several of its own strikes against Syrian territory in response to rocket attacks from the country. Israel has also launched air raids on Syria’s two main airports, in Damascus and Aleppo, knocking both out of service. The Israel Defense Forces also said that a drone that had struck the southern city of Eilat last week had been fired from Syria.

Though most of the attention has focused on the role of Iran-backed groups, the Syrian regime is also increasingly involved. 

“The Syrian Army has had a role in several rocket attacks on the Israeli-held Golan in recent weeks -- and Israel has retaliated to those attacks by striking at least three Syrian military bases in Daraa in southwest Syria,” Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, told The Messenger. “Iran's network of proxies is heavily embedded within the Syrian security apparatus in southern Syria.”

This complex network of proxies, local militias and armed groups have drawn Syria closer to the war that began on Oct. 7. 

Bad neighbors

Israel and Syria have been in an official state of war since Israel’s founding in 1948, and the two countries have fought directly in three major military conflicts. Both were also heavily involved in Lebanon’s civil war in the 1970s and ‘80s, backing opposing factions and occupying parts of the country for years.

In the 1967 Six Day War, Israel captured the border area known as the Golan Heights. Most of the world still formally recognizes Golan as Syrian territory, but President Donald Trump formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the territory in 2019, a stance Joe Biden’s administration has not reversed.

After civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, Israel became alarmed by the presence in Syria of the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces, which had been sent to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime against rebels backed by western and Arab governments. In addition to providing direct support to Syrian forces, Hezbollah and the IRGC worked to set up smaller Shiite militias to fight for Assad. Some of these are comprised of Syrian, Iraqi, or Lebanese fighters; some come from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Even as the fighting in Syria has ebbed, these groups remain a significant presence. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an NGO, has estimated there are as many as 65,000 personnel in Iran-backed militias in government-held parts of Syria. 

Israel first launched airstrikes against targets in Syria it said were associated with Iran or Hezbollah in 2013. Since then, it has carried out hundreds of these strikes. Often, the attacks have been aimed not at Hezbollah or Iranian forces, but at Syria’s own military.

Russia, which also backs Assad and has stationed sophisticated air defense systems in the country, has mostly turned a blind eye to the Israeli air campaign. This is likely one reason why Israel has been more reluctant than many of its western partners to provide direct military support to Ukraine. 

Assad's return

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, the division of the Revolutionary Guards responsible for coordinating the militias, has reportedly made several visits to Syria to coordinate with local proxy groups. 

Assad, meanwhile, attended a summit in Saudi Arabia last week at which Arab leaders and Iran’s president discussed the war. This would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, when many of the leaders in attendance, including the rulers of Saudi Arabia, were staunchly opposed to Iran and dedicated to overthrowing Assad, but relations have improved and Assad was readmitted to the Arab League earlier this year. At the summit, Assad criticized western countries for turning a blind eye to civilian casualties in Gaza, a stance condemned as hypocritical by the Syrian opposition.

Like his partners, Iran and Hezbollah, Assad appears to have little desire to get drawn into an all-out war with Israel, particularly at a time when his forces aren’t even in full control of his own country. But the longer the conflict drags on, and the more various actors test each other’s red lines, the greater the risk that the conflict will spread.