Why Ozempic and Other Weight-Loss Drugs Could Drive More Gym Sign-Ups This January

Every generation has a new silver bullet that promises to melt extra pounds away. The eighties had SlimFast meal replacements. That was followed by the appetizer suppressant fen-phen in the nineties. More recently, influencers hawk flat tummy teas and waist trainers on social media. 

Working in the fitness industry for 30 years, Jeff Zwiefel, president and COO of Life Time health clubs, which has over 170 gyms across 31 states, has been around for plenty of these fads and has never seen one stick.

So when people started gushing about a new class of diabetes medications, Ozempic being the most prominent, that were hailed as "weight loss wonders" due to their slimming side effects, Zwiefel's initial response was naturally skeptical. 

However, after he and his team started digging into the research, he changed his tune on the drugs. And in November, Life Time was one of the first health clubs in the nation to announce an in-house program to work with doctors to offer prescriptions for these medications to gym members. 

“I believe they will help the industry, ultimately,” Zwiefel said. “You might join Life Time to lose weight, and we will be able to prescribe these GLP-1 agonists as part of your solution. But the next stage of your journey might be playing pickleball at our clubs, it might be playing basketball or tennis.” 

Some of these drugs, known as GLP-1 agonists, were first approved by the FDA to be used for weight loss in 2021 and are projected to reach $100 billion in sales by 2030. While the pharmaceutical companies marketing these drugs stand to see massive growth, not every industry is positioned to share in the windfall. The potential explosion of these weight-loss drugs has sent stocks tumbling for healthcare providers and many food and beverage companies as investors worry about reduced demand. 

More Energy

Gyms and fitness centers, typically expecting an uptick in memberships from New Year's resolutions to lose weight, may surprisingly not face the same worries. Rather than losing customers to medication, gyms could see interest swell from a new wave of members – those using the drugs but seeking to complement them with exercise regimes. Some people are finding more energy on the medication, while others are discovering new confidence with their slimmer frames, which can make gyms less intimidating.

With nearly 70% of the U.S. adult population being obese or overweight, these drugs are set to be a major game-changer for Americans trying to drop some pounds. Those who manage to get their hands on these medications can expect to lose on average 35 pounds after 68 weeks, according to clinical trials. The demand for the drugs has been so intense that Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk has struggled with a supply shortage since May.

A recent report by Morgan Stanley Research projects that 24 million Americans, constituting 7% of the population, will be taking GLP-1 agonists by the year 2035.

But many users don’t stop just at the weight loss provided by the drugs. In a separate survey conducted by Morgan Stanley Research, analysts discovered that individuals who began taking the anti-obesity medications reported an increase in their exercise levels. The percentage of respondents engaging in weekly exercise doubled, rising from 35% before medication to 71% afterward.

In a research note, analyst Brian Harbour theorized that people losing weight on the drugs might be exercising more because they feel more physically able and more mentally motivated. 

96 Pounds Shed

This rang true for Brittany Pfeiffer, who is documenting her weight-loss journey on Mounjaro, a GLP-1 agonist by Eli Lilly, on her Instagram account.

“If you lose weight, you're going to be more confident doing anything,” Pfeiffer said. “It's not going to be the same scenario as it is walking [into the gym] at 300 pounds.”

Pfeiffer, who works at a community college in the St. Louis area, started exercising about a month before starting Mounjaro and now heads to the gym six to seven times a week. So far, she has lost 96 pounds. 

As a competitive gymnastics coach for almost two decades, Pfeiffer always knew what she needed to do in order to lose weight, it just came down to actually doing it. With Mounjaro, her energy has increased because it helps keep her blood sugar under control, which has helped her at the gym.

Zwiefel has encountered similar sentiments like those expressed by Harbour and Pfeiffer numerous times in his fitness career. People have often told him that they need to get in shape before they can start going to the gym. In November, Life Time debuted its MIORA Longevity and Performance program at a location in Minneapolis as well as online to serve potential gym members like this.

Through MIORA, members can get a health assessment including a blood draw and then receive personalized health recommendations such as exercise and nutrition advice, hormone therapy and prescriptions for GPL-1 agonists.

Zwiefel wouldn’t be surprised to see a bump in New Year resolution memberships this year, but beyond that, he envisions the club’s GLP-1 offering becoming a “feeder system” for longtime members. 

“We believe that if used right, used intelligently, these can really be an effective mechanism to help people actually stick to the program much longer and achieve success,” he said.

Even elite New York City personal trainer Alex Folacci — whose clients include actors, CEOs and Wall Street investors — acknowledges that these medications can be helpful for people who struggle to keep weight off due to genetics. One of his clients who is diabetic has lost 50 pounds on Ozempic.

Replacing Muscle

However, Folacci doesn’t see his career at risk any time soon and can even imagine a need for more personal trainers like him. He points out that people on these drugs must incorporate some strength training and conditioning to offset muscle loss, a side effect of the medication. 

“If you take these drugs with no exercise you will lose some muscle,” Folacci said. “If you stop taking the drugs, you will put the fat back on and have no muscles. There's no such thing as a free lunch. You definitely need to work out to preserve your muscles.”

Frank Lichtenberg, a healthcare management professor at Columbia Business School, suggests that despite many unknowns, the societal impact of these weight-loss medications may become apparent sooner than anticipated. Typically, new drugs take five to 20 years to significantly lower healthcare spending due in part to how long it takes for them to reach peak utilization, according to his research. However, the rapid adoption of these weight-loss drugs may expedite this timeline and bring about change in many industries.

"I think it's a little hard to predict what all of those [ways] are,” he said.

Although some can be predicted now, with Lichtenberg pointing to people buying new clothes for their new physique as a potential impact.

For her part, Pfeiffer has already noticed her habits and spending changing since taking Mounjaro.

She calls herself a prepper – meaning she’s always prepared to go to the gym. Pfeiffer keeps her shoes, workout clothes, swimsuit and gym bag in her car at all times in order to eliminate any excuse not to go to the gym. She’s able to afford her new gym-related costs because other areas of her budget have shrunk. 

Pfeiffer hasn’t eaten at McDonald’s in over a year, she spends less at Starbucks, skips appetizers and desserts at restaurants and can even walk into a bakery without buying anything. 

“The money that I spent on food is now going towards athletic gear,” she said.