The Grinch Strikes Holiday Hiring Plans as Retailers Lose Confidence in Consumer Spending

Retailers and logistics companies are hiring fewer seasonal workers this year, a sign the hot labor market is finally cooling and vibrant consumer spending is slowly weakening.

Seasonal job posting are at their lowest level since 2013, according to Challenger Grey & Christmas.

The Chicago-based outplacement firm says U.S. companies announced plans to hire 573,300 seasonal workers between September and October of this year, down from 590,200 last year and 518,000 in 2013.

LinkedIn reports that seasonal jobs posted on its site have declined by about 50% from last year, comparing July through October to the same period last year.

"We interpret this as a potential sign of what retailers expect for their holiday season and whether the US consumer is sustaining their spending through the year-end," LinkedIn's Chief Economist Karin wrote in an online post.

Seasonal job posts nationwide are down 6% at job search engine Indeed, compared to 2022, but there's been a 19% increase in people looking for those jobs.

The National Retail Federation says it expects retailers will hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022, but down as much as 40% from a recent high in 2021.

Among a slew of recent seasonal hiring plan announcements:

JCPenney said it would hire about 10,000 seasonal workers, down from 22,000 last year
Macy's announced plans to hire 38,000 seasonal workers, down from about 35,000 last year
Dick's Sporting Goods said it would hire up to 8,600 seasonal workers, down from about 9,000 last year
Target said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers, the same as last year.
Walmart hasn't said how many seasonal workers it would hire this year, but last year it had planned to fill 40,000 seasonal positions. A Walmart executive, however, said on LinkedIn that the company as been hiring throughout the year and is "staffed and ready" for the holidays.
The U.S. Postal Service said it would hire 10,000 workers, about one-third of what it added last year.
United Parcel Service said it planned about 100,000 seasonal hires, on par with last year.
Amazon stands as an exception. The online retail giant said it plans to hire as many as 250,000 holiday workers, up from 150,000 last year.

JC Penney — Like many of its retail rivals JCPenney has scaled back its seasonal hiring plans this year.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

While consumer spending has held relatively strong throughout the year, some retailers are wary this trend won't hold through the holiday season. Lowe's, Kohl's and Best Buy all reported sales declines this week and lowered their forecasts for the holiday shopping season.

"We continue to see a cautious consumer," Nordstrom's Chief Financial Officer Cathy Smith told investors on a conference call on Tuesday after the department store chain missed revenue expectations.

Target CEO Brian Cornell also warned of more cautious consumers on a conference call with investors last week.

"Consumers are still spending, but pressures like higher interest rates, the resumption of student loan repayments, increased credit card debt and reduced savings rates have left them with less discretionary income, forcing them to make trade-offs,” he said.

The labor market, after defying expectations of a slowdown throughout most of the year, finally showed signs of cooling in October with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%.

The 150,000 jobs added during the month were below the 170,000 economists expected. And the number of jobs in retail, transportation and warehousing – the sectors that generate the most seasonal employment – was little changed.