A Philadelphia Phillies World Series Win Could Mean Bad Things for the US Economy — Even a Recession

Cheering for the Philadelphia Phillies as the team approaches a possible World Series bid is a bit like rooting for a recession.

The Phillies' odds of winning the World Series are slim, but not out of reach — especially after sweeping the Florida Marlins with a 7-1 win in Game 2 of their wild-card series Wednesday night, advancing to the National League Division Series.

While good news for Phillies fans, if the team wins the NLDS and then takes the World Series, it could actually portend bad things for the entire U.S. economy, so say some analysts, economists and those who follow Philly folklore.

While a Philly World Series run isn't one of official indicators watched by the Federal Reserve in voting on interest rates — at least not one they publicly share — a Philadelphia World Series win has been loosely correlated with severe economic downturns of years past.

As karma goes, it makes perfect sense that the plight of the country might stem from the success of the Philadelphia nine on the baseball field.

In fact, they've coincided with three of the worst economic downturns in U.S. history.

The Great Recession

Moody's Analytics warned investors in October 2008: "The data strongly suggest that a Philadelphia Phillies victory in the current World Series spells bad news for the economic cycle," the analysts wrote in what turned out to be a prescient research note. "Philadelphia baseball success has coincided with even worse times in U.S. economic history."

After a two-day suspension due to rain, the Phillies would go on to take the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 on Oct. 29, 2008. While the U.S. was already technically in a recession, it would deepen from there and take another seven months and almost $2 trillion in government bailouts and stimulus spending before the U.S. could climb out of that hole.

1980 World Series

The Phillies beat the Kansas City Royals in Game 6 to win the 1980 World Series. The U.S. entered a deep recession the following year with unemployment running at 11%.

If the Phillies had won last year, we would have already been in a doozy of a recession

The Great Depression

The Philadelphia Athletics, ancestors of the team that's now in Oakland, joined the new American League in 1901. By 1929, they were headed to their fourth World Series. The Philadelphia Athletics would beat the Chicago Cubs in Game 5 on Oct. 14, 1929.

The stock market famously crashed on Oct. 28, 1929. Black Monday was the beginning of the Great Depression. The Philadelphia Athletics won again in 1930, doubling down on what would become an economic downturn that would last another 11 years.

Needless to say, the Phillies' recent good fortune and run at the title is making some investors and economists wary.

As a Philadelphia native, top economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics has followed the correlation.

"If the Phillies had won last year, we would have already been in a doozy of a recession," he wrote The Messenger in an email, punctuated by a smiley face. 

Indeed, there was widespread speculation that the U.S. would enter a recession toward the end of 2022 when the Phillies faced the Houston Astros in the World Series. But the Astros clocked the Phillies in Game 6 on Nov. 3 to take the title.

As for the Phillies for now, the markets can still breathe easy since the Braves are favored to win the best-of-5 NLDS, which kicks off Saturday night.

FanDuel Sportsbook gives the Phillies an 11.1% chance of nabbing the World Series. The Braves have implied odds of 27.8% — higher than any other contending team — of winning the World Series.

The odds of a recession are currently a bit higher than the Phillies' chances of winning. Goldman Sachs, for instance, currently has the odds of a recession at 15%.

"As the center of the American Revolution and the Continental Congress, Philadelphia has always been the pulse of the American economy," jests Jeff Harris, a finance and real estate professor at American University. "As karma goes, it makes perfect sense that the plight of the country might stem from the success of the Philadelphia nine on the baseball field."

Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House tried to bring some perspective to the superstition: "All I can say is that correlation does not imply causation," he told The Messenger.

And it's not much of a correlation. There have been 14 declared recessions since the Great Depression and the Phillies' wins have only factored into three of these downturns, he pointed out.

As the Phillies inch closer to a championship, the U.S. economy is already exhibiting the signs of a looming recession. A slew of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve is still at work, slowing the economy in the Fed's bid to curb inflation.

Superstitions abound in baseball, as well as in markets and economics. Dumb luck can direct outcomes in unpredictable ways.

"We've got crypto currencies, so anything can happen," said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Forecasting.

He said he's far more concerned about other factors, including the nation's out-of-control deficit spending, than he is about the Phillies.

"Just to be safe, I'm going to have to root against them," he said, "and it has nothing to do with growing up in Pittsburgh."

A more optimistic look, perhaps is what happens to the U.S. economy when Philly isn't in the playoffs. Most years, the Phillies don't win the World Series, and most years there isn't a recession.

"The Phillies Indicator has stood the test of time," he says, "rewarding stock market investors whenever the Philly amiably bows out of the pennant race."