Moderna’s COVID Vaccine Commercial Sales to Generate Up to $4 Billion

Moderna expects $2 to $4 billion of its revenue in 2023 will come from commercial sales of its COVID vaccine, according to the company’s earnings report on Thursday.

Moderna has seen a shift in its sales from government contracts — which it still estimates will generate $6 billion and $8 billion in sales this year — toward a private market.

“We continue to expect 2023 to be a transitional year as we move from a pandemic to an endemic commercial market with significant seasonality,” Moderna CEO James M. Mock said in a call with investors Thursday.

The company’s revenues have plummeted as government purchases of COVID vaccines decline post-pandemic. Moderna’s total sales fell 94% to $293 million during the three months ending June 30 from the same period in 2022. Commercial contracts could represent some hope for the company, which will launch its updated COVID vaccine this fall.

The company said most of its signed and anticipated contracts are located in the U.S. with others in Japan and Europe.

“We are confident in our market share and the progress that we've been making with commercial contracts thus far in the U.S.,” said Arpa Garay, Moderna’s chief commercial officer.

Garay said the domestic commercial vaccines market is includes a diverse range of customers, including retail pharmacies, wholesalers, health systems, employers, and other providers.

Moderna stock was up 1.4% in midday trading on Friday, to $111.