Fashion Production Hubs Could Lose $65 Billion From Heat and Flooding, Study Finds

Four of the world’s critical fashion exporters could miss out on billions of dollars due to extreme heat and flooding, according to research by Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute and Schroders.

Severe heat and flooding could wipe out $65 billion in exports and almost 1 million new jobs in climate-vulnerable Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Vietnam by 2030, the study, published Tuesday, found. That would represent roughly a 22% drop in earnings.

The four countries accounted for about 18% of global apparel exports in 2021, together containing about 10,000 apparel and footwear factories and employing more than 10.6 million workers in the industry.

By 2050, the study found that the losses would be even deeper: High heat and flooding could cause up to a 70% plunge in export earnings and as many as 9 million fewer new jobs.

The study found that exposure to heat and flooding risk is widespread across 32 production hubs around the world, from Nicaragua to Mauritius.

The report’s authors told Reuters that not one of the suppliers or buyers they spoke to had their eye on heat or flooding, instead focusing their attention on emissions and recycling.

The "wet bulb globe temperature," a measure of heat stress on manual workers, indicates that apparel factory workers feel discomfort at about 28 to 30.5 degrees celsius. By 35 degrees celsius, most workers will suffer severe effects, like heat stroke and possibly death, according to several studies cited in the research.

Minor flooding alone can cost a factory cost hours or even days of work, according to the study.

While experts have generally agreed that limiting global temperature rise to, at most, 1.5 degrees celsius would help the world avoid the worst climate impacts, current policies are leading towards a rise in temperature of roughly 2.8 degrees celsius by the end of the century, the United Nations found.