COVID Cases Are Up But Not So Much for the Stock of Vaccine Manufacturers

A summer surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations did not move the needle for shares of vaccine manufacturers.

The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations has been steadily climbing since mid-July, peaking at 20,552 admissions the week of Sept. 09, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control. It wasn't until this past week that hospitalizations started to decline. During the week of Sept. 16, new weekly hospitalizations dropped 4.3% to 19,674.

On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, shares for COVID-19 vaccine maker Pfizer have fallen 37% to $32.10. Another vaccine maker Moderna shares dropped by an even bigger 44% to $99.44.

Pfizer and Modern shares peaked in 2021 when the vaccines started to roll out to the general public. Pfizer stock soared 65% from the beginning of 2021 to $61.25 in December of that year. Moderna shares skyrocketed 299% to $449.38 in August 2021 compared to the beginning of that year.

Pfizer said in its latest quarterly earnings report that its revenues this year were going to be smaller than in 2022 "due to expected revenue declines for Pfizer’s COVID-19 products."

“We continue to expect 2023 to be a transition year as...we move from advanced purchases under government contracts to more transitional supply arrangements" for commercial U.S. sales of Comirnaty and Paxlovid, said Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla in an earnings call in May. Comirnaty is the brand name for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

Pfizer expects to see COVID-19 vaccine rates continue to fall through 2023 and 2024.

Moderna said in its latest quarterly earnings report that it expects to make $6 billion to $8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales by the end of 2023, "dependent on U.S. vaccination rates." In 2022, the company reported $18.4 billion in vaccine sales.